🔗 Share this article

Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It often serves as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. However, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or just the greatest upset.

However this year's competition is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and longtime also-rans improving together. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still