A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
