Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Major Barriers in the Selection Process
Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
